Pre-Conference Consternation
1. Guelph- This team now has 5 potential first team ACs with the addition of Nigel Wray (formerly of D1 powerhouse Iona). They put on a clinic at the Queen’s Open and had 7 in the top 10. One guy who deserves a shout out and hasn’t been mentioned yet is Cody Murray, who ran 32:40 and almost scored for the Gryphs (this team is so good that their displacers deserve recognition). Boorsma sat out this one, but Brunsting and Brett both look like podium guys come OUAs and CIS. This team has the potential to sweep the individual medals. Guys who can stop them are Christie, Pieterson, Rachem, O’Neil, and Weston. This group is going to make it very difficult to make the AC list this year as Guelph will almost certainly take 5 spots, and perhaps as many as 7. It probably needs to be mentioned that the group of Brunsting, Brett, Parrot, and Wray appeared to be lollygagging through the early going at Queen’s and only really turned it on after halfway. I assume that means there is more in the tank, and that a team run is likely what we will see on Oct. 31st at OUAs. They are good enough that they can completely dictate the race, and will be looking for ways to use the narrow, winding Brock course to their advantage. But, really, strategy doesn’t matter for these guys; they are absolutely invulnerable.
2. Windsor- This is a very, very good team. But they have no shot at the win. Weston is fit and running fast, similarly to last year. Hopefully he doesn’t get ill leading into the big races, although he was top 10 in 2007 so he knows what it takes to get it done. Sinclair, Keller, Aguanno, Walters, and Meyer all appear to be potential AC guys, although not more than two of them will get the honour. Sinclair is a likely suspect, and we have a feeling Aguanno is due for a big one. If the rest of their scorers end up in the high teens / low twenties, the Lancers will score very well. They’ve got 6 very fast dudes leading this team, so they are not only potent at the front, but have some breathing room as well. This list doesn’t even include former world XC guy Henshaw who’s only outing this season came in Chicago. We would never count out Fairell’s squad at CIS because they know how to bring it, and this is a team that is good enough to win a CIS title. Unfortunately for them, the 2009 Guelph squad is just way too good. Unless Windsor can convince Mauricio to use up his last year of eligibility, they won’t be better than second.
3. X- This team started the year as a clear 3rd place team in our minds. Now they are on the ropes. They’ve run well, but there is a group of teams behind them making inroads. Gerych is improving every time out, and McCarron looks like an AC type with his great run at UNB last week. They also have a very strong third in Addison, who was less than 20 seconds behind Gerych last weekend. That’s three guys who should be in the top 20 or 25. However, there is a gap forming between 3 and 4 which could put them into a bit of trouble, as Doubrovsky hasn’t been running like his usual self lately. 40 seconds back of a 20th place guy in Addison means X’s 4 and 5 are looking at near 40th place finishes. If Doubravsky and the mercurial Corbit can get a little bit better, this team is most certainly taking the bronze. But, if one of the 5 scorers have an off day, X will plummet down the rankings as they are overtaken by the group of teams currently about 15-25 points behind them.
4. Regina- Finally, Wiebe shows he’s back and fit. He and Baiton ran 25:05 and 25:10 on what was probably a quick course. However, they beat their third man Wig by a minute. This has a couple of implications. First, we think it means these two are both going to be ACs (if they hold it together; Baiton is a rookie so you never know) and second, Regina needs to close the gap down between the 2 and 3. The CIS ROY battle will come down to Baiton vs Colle of Concordia, with both showing the fitness necessary to be in the top 14. Fyfe has joined Wig now which gives this squad 4 in the top 35 or so, but Benjamin is a little too far back for a team podium. A minute between the 4th and 5th is what kills this team’s chances, but it gives a guy like Benjamin a shot at glory. Again, this is a team that is 5 deep, so if any one of the 5 gets hurt or has a bad day their hopes will be wrecked like the Edmund Fitzgerald.
5. Calgary- Here’s another strong Western team that could step up at CI’s. We must admit that there’s some truth in the cacophony of Calgary cheerleading here on TnF. Matt Cloutier had a very nice run down in Idaho (the Gem State), and will be looking for an AC spot when he comes down to sea level. Dorosz ran capably as well. If Pootz can return to action at a similar level, and Nicol can get things back together, this team will be as hard to catch as the cutthroat trout (Idaho’s state fish). But we need to see all five Calgary scorers show up and put together a strong performance before they can move ahead of We look forward to seeing how things pan out at the Stewart Cup; these Western teams are leaving lots of questions unanswered, conserving their strength for the big races.
6. Toronto- Del Monte and Pettes haven’t raced since 1994, but I assume they are still fit and raring to go. Douglas and Lambert had solid outings at the Queen’s Open with 33:08 and 33:13. That’s a pretty good level for your 3-4 scorers. That being said, this team’s fate is more than likely going to be dictated by how much better Lambert can get. A once (and future?) first-team AC, he needs to get back into that form, and then this will be the team in the best position to take the bronze away from X. Going from 33:13 to 32:13 in 4 weeks is tough to do, but Lambert has the credentials. One issue with this squad is the fifth man. 33:42 for Pavelic and 3 more teammates within 15 seconds of him makes this a deep squad, but one which needs a big-run at the 5-spot to get into the medal mix. Del Monte is going to have to make sure he’s a low-stick, probably in the single digits, and Pettes will also have to have a career-performance for the Blues to upset the three teams we see between them and the medals.
7. UVic- Pieterson is fit and probably in a position to run in the lead pack on Nov. 14th. Mallie sat out the Puma classic but we’re confident he’ll be running as well as in 2008 when he was 9th at CIS. Childs had a good one last weekend with 20:15 for four miles, which helps this team’s prospects. I like this team for the CanWest title, although in a deeper field like CIS they will suffer. Their 4, 5, and 6 men are getting better but still need to improve if this group wants a shot at a podium. Fleming, Irvine, and Clouthier are in a position where if one or two of them can step up, they can help their team vault past a number of higher ranked squads. It appears that teams 4-9 are actually quite similar in ability and it really is going to come down to who can get it done on the day. UVic is a team that has a lot of potential, like U of T and Calgary, because they will likely be scoring a couple of guys in the middle of the pack where a 10 second pb can account for 10 points.
8. UWO- This team was left off the list last week because of a not-so-stellar effort at Chicago, but they get back into the top 10 this week with a great run in Rochester. Real Deal ran 24:59 and is probably a first-team type of guy right now,while Huff backed him up with a fast 25:29. This team’s rank has been bolstered by monster runs from Brent Smith and David Arango. 25:45 and 25:54 for the 4-5 makes this team capable of perhaps even a top 5 at CIS. However, they are in a bit of trouble as Strokach ran 26:22 and was pretty far back. Komer sat this one out and he was 21st at CIS last year so this team has potential. We expect a big battle between Queen’s and UWO at OUAs and likely again at CIS. It’s hard to say where both of these teams stack up against CanWest schools like UVic and Calgary without having seen them race against one-another. My gut says that those 4 teams will separated by less than 20 points at the show.
9. Queen’s- What a run by Clay Patterson. My colleague appears to have been right when he announced that Patterson had arrived after the Western Invite in September. It’s still early to say he’s an AC type but his run at Queen’s (32:42) shows a lot of promise and gives Queen’s a boost. With him and Hulse, this squad has two guys who should be near the front of the pack at OUAs and CI’s. Courchene is another guy who has come out of the woodwork as a solid third guy running 33:15 at Queen’s. Potvin was off at Queen’s; however, Nishiyama answered our prayers for a fifth man on this squad running 33:40. It’s hard to say how good this team really is, as this is their home meet, and we know all too well that Queen’s usually runs well at Queen’s. Hopefully Oct. 17th won’t be their best effort of the year, and they’ll run well at Queen’s again, in November, when it counts. If they avoid the hosts’ curse, they can use their home field advantage to great effect; Fort Henry is a thinking man’s course, where knowledge of its contours and caprices can pay real dividends.
10. Alberta- This is a young squad that we will learn a whole lot more about at Stewart cup this weekend. They’ve only run their A-team once and it wasn’t against any other CIS A-teams at the Calgary meet. As we’ve mentioned, Ostapowich and Weikum look like top 25 threats and there is some good backing in the 3-6 positions. However, unless this team can continue to improve they will be looking at a place just inside the top ten, similar to last year when they were 9th. Now that we’ve been educated, we realize that the grinders on this team will limit the squad to a top 10 type effort, not a top 5… No but really, this is a good team that is running into a large pack of opponents in front of them that they can upset if they get some big days from their later scorers. The 6th man on this team has run 33:19 for 10km already this year, and the fact that they are only 10th on our radar speaks volumes about how high the level of CIS cross-country running is. With all that being said, Playfair usually gets a surprise race or two out of his team. Who will it be in 2009? Leboeuf… Law… Lauzon… Moore… I dare you to make your coach look good one more time.
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