1. Guelph: A course record for Carson after an “easy” opening lap where she ran with her teammates got Guelph off to a good start at Queen’s. Lalonde followed her up in 2nd as the Gryphons put two in front of Toronto’s Jewett. 9 Guelph girls ran faster than McMaster’s fifth, who came in in a none too shabby 18:53. This team has athletes who won’t even make it to CIS, who would be scorers for other top tier teams. That’s scary. The championship is theirs to lose, and it’s going to take a miracle for any team to even give Guelph a run for their money. Perhaps the Gryphons will be in for a tight battle, if Toronto and Mac team up to form an all-star super team.
2. Toronto: While the Gryphons made another strong statement at Queen’s, the Blues continue their dissimulations and wilful obscurantism. McClure didn’t run, Brown didn’t race, and Gollish tempoed. Of the top four, only Jewett put in a solid effort. With her leg taped up, she did what she does best, going out hard and putting the hurt on the entire field. That’s going to be a good strategy come CIS because, as Toronto’s second runner, she’s going to need to be in the top 5 to help her squad build a lead on McMaster’s front runners. Two of Digiacomo, Aust, and Hickok are probably going to be required to sacrifice themselves for the sake of the team by pacing the third to a huge breakthrough race. Things are getting more muddied at the top after the Queen’s Open, and Toronto is going to have to have an athlete in the 5-6-7 group step up in order to secure a silver medal team finish.
3. Mac (18:26): Pearo just made things a whole lot more interesting by nipping Jewett at Queen’s Meet. A 17:53 moves her from a potential second team AC to a potential first team AC. That doesn’t sound like a lot of points, but based on what we’re seeing, it’s going to be a very tight battle for the silver. Wyman and Giovannetti both had solid runs and provide this squad with three potential ACs. That’s getting darn close to as good as Toronto at the front; with a faster 5-woman, this squad will gain valuable points further back. Their fifth girl ran 18:53 at Queen’s – and yes, times were fast on the day, but this was due to a quality field as well as good conditions. We are thinking that McMaster will take U of T out at OUAs, but CIS is going to be an absolute dogfight.
4. Calgary: A strong team run at Idaho moves this team closer to the medals, but it still doesn’t put them ahead of McMaster. Kary didn’t run, and yet had 5 in at 19:07. If she did race this squad would probably have 5 runners at 18:39 or better. That’s pretty sick. Fenton stepped up and helps her squad’s chances with an AC type of run (17:55). However, Mac and U of T have 3 athletes who appear to be at an AC level right now, and that’s the difference. This Calgary squad is dynamite but they have run into three very good squads ahead of them. McNicoll proved she’s back, and with her season clearly on the upswing the Dinos are relying on another AC run from her to get into the medals. McMaster’s 4 and 5 will going to head to head with the Dinos 4 and 5, and it’s going to come down to but a few points at the big dance.
5. UVic: That’s more like it. This group took down the other BC schools (SFU and UBC) in winning the PUMA Classic in the US of A. It’s too bad SFU and UBC won’t race in the CIS. While they do have a great rivalry, if they were in the CIS it would make the CanWest stronger and UVic would have some close by rivals to motivate them. Alas, they don’t, but Victoria still manages to stick it to them every once in a while. Moran ran great in 18:09, as did Skinner and Mitic. Jean and Beaulieu ran solidly as well at 18:42 and 18:44. It seems like 18:30 is the new 19 minute mark in the women’s CIS. With a fifth runner coming in at 18:44 this squad can be ranked no higher than 5th. This is a very good team that will find themselves in a very tight race with X and probably Calgary. While I hate to say it, it’s worth mentioning that an 18:09 front-runner hurts this squad. They need at least one athlete to drop into the 17:50 range if they want to move up on Slanders. That is the piece that Calgary has and UVic does not.
6. X: Here’s another squad that is very good, and probably one which would battle for a team podium in most years. They averaged 18:40 on what looked like a fast - but reasonable - course at UNB, and they smoked CIS #10 Dalhousie. Preibischova looks like she’s back in her 2007 fitness (4th at CIS) with a 17:54, and the depth on this squad is also strong. Fouskova, Macdonald, Bates, Macneil, and Mosher all ran 19:07 or faster; however, this team only has one low stick. As we’ve mentioned before, it’s going to take 2 or 3 of these types of athletes to medal on the women’s side. This team has the advantage of being in a weaker (although perhaps not this year) conference, and therefore having the opportunity to hold back a little and still win the AUS champs. OUA squads like Queen’s and UWO will be bleeding from the pours on Oct. 31st trying to solidify their spot on the starting line two weeks later.
7. UWO: Another good weekend for the ‘Stangs in Rochester with rookie Knox providing this team with a third runner capable of a top 20 or 25 at CIS. Unfortunately, this group drops a spot because of the strong outing by UVic. Mockler and Convery (the Mighty Mites) are clearly fit and doing a great job of leading their team. With a fifth girl at 19:13, it appears this squad and Queen’s are almost identical in terms of talent. Queen’s has a little bit of an edge at the front, but UWO makes up for it with their third. We predict OUAs will come down to about 5 points between UWO and Queen’s. This battle could have a big impact on the ‘Stangs’ season as they do not get to run CIS unless they are top 3 at the Provincial Champs. It is possible that the 7th best team in the country won’t be at the Fort unless they do something miraculous at OUAs. Perhaps it’s time for a change in policy at UWO; this group is more than deserving of getting to show their stuff at the season finale.
8. Queen’s: This squad stepped up big time on their home course and Liza Howard answered our question from last week with a huge 18:08 run. She provides Queen’s with the low-stick that they so desperately needed and was backed up by another strong run from Roney in 18:37. Queen’s had 4 girls in under 19 minutes and their fifth, Keenleyside in 19:09, was 44th at CIS in 2008. That’s a pretty darn good squad, but one that is only 8th in our ranking. Again, with another big run from someone this squad has the potential to take a jump up the list into the top 5. The battle for places 4-8 are very tight this year and one big run, or perhaps one off-day, will have huge implications for any of these teams. One last point is that this team appears to be headed in the right direction, having gotten better in each outing so far. If they can continue with this progression they will likely make Coach Bolton a very happy man.
9. Manitoba: Nothing changed here. We’ve scoured college cross-country results from across the globe, and it doesn’t appear they raced this past weekend. As stated in our last report, this group has a great 1-2 punch but the depth positions make this a group battling for top 10 instead of top 5. They will manage a better result in the CanWest scoring than the CIS where the large gap from 1 to 5 hurts them a lot more. Bruckschwaiger appears poised for an AC spot and Gregoire will probably be battling in the 20s. Ginter, Barret, and Tessmann need to keep improving if this squad has visions of moving up. It’s freaking cold in Winnipeg, and there was snow on the ground last week. That probably makes these girls tougher than those running for schools like Windsor and Victoria. For the sake of the Bisons, one hopes it snows at the Fort, so that they can take advantage of the collapse of those weaker-willed souls.
10. Dalhousie: This team edged out Sherbrooke at UNB and will probably edge them (and Windsor) out again at CIS to round out the top 10. Schlosser is ready to make the AC team, and Groves will be battling on the fringe of that team in Kingston. The Hennigar-Yarr-Sheffield coaching trio is working some magic on these ladies. But this squad spirals into a world of trouble after these two, as they waited 50 seconds for their 3rd runner to come in last weekend. Even so, they get some points back on the next tier of teams because there were only 12 seconds between their 3 and 5. This isn’t to say girls running 19:11 for 5km aren’t legit, but it will not be enough to move up any higher than 10th. Two teams from the AUS in the top ten at CIS is something that doesn’t often happen but it’s likely that it will in 2009. That’s great news. There are some strong teams in Quebec as well that are just on the outside looking in but will have some great battles at the conference champs in two weeks. Also, Ryer from St. Mary’s will make the individual race at AUS interesting as the top 10 won’t be made entirely up of X-women and Tigers.
No comments:
Post a Comment