Slanders and Speculations - The Prophet’s Precognitions:
Well, here it is folks, the granddaddy of them all. Saturday, November 14th is in sight and teams across the country are getting psyched up and spiked up for what is the most exciting race of the year: the CIS Cross-Country Champs. We don’t want to build this race up anymore than it needs to be, but it has to be mentioned that both fields this year are very, very deep. Clearly, there is a strong team favourite on each side, but there are 12 or 13 high level men’s and women’s teams behind tham. On the women’s side, there is lots of depth with 10 teams who have top 5 ability. On the men’s side the picture is clear through 2, and then all hell breaks loose with at least 4 others who are battling for the last medal, and 5 more who could squeak into the top 6 if things go well. It’s going to be a fantastic day at Fort Henry, and with Lakins in charge there is no doubt the 2009 championships will be a classy affair. The course at Fort Henry has been fast and beautiful a few times in November, but a betting man would be safe to assume it’s going to be ugly in K-town. Boys and girls, eat your Wheaties; it’s time for OT.
Women:
1. Guelph: As if to prove that they could win OU’s with one hand tied behind their back, the Gryphons dominated last weekend without their star runner. We’re still hoping to see a Carson-Brown show down at CI’s, but we saw this weekend that the team title should be secured whether or not she runs. The Gryphons could have won this weekend, even if they’d scored their 3 through 7 runners. This was their 6th OUA team title in a row, and this Saturday they will be looking for their 5th consecutive CIS title. Obviously the loss of Carson hurts this squad, and if she’s out of CIS then there is a slim chance another team can get close. However, Mac is the best bet right now and they were a ways off at OUAs. 5 girls in the top 10 in the OUA with the fifth runner beating 2008 AC’s means this team is a shoe in for the title.
2. McMaster: Pearo had a strong run this weekend, claiming a rare spot amongst Guelph’s top five. The rest of the Mac women were not far behind, all finishing in the top 20. Their fifth scorer ran 18:46, and another effort like that will mean this team has 5 runners in the top 30, characteristic of most silver medal winning teams at CIS. With Toronto failing to show up, Mac had this OUA silver handed to them; look for a more hotly contested battle at CIs, with teams from East and West fighting for podium spots. This squad hasn’t shown any weaknesses yet, and it appears their OUA race was their best team effort of the season. If they can continue that trend, they will more than likely be rewarded with some silver, although it’s tight enough between teams 2-7 that an off day from the Marauders will knock them off the podium.
3. Toronto: Great runs by Brown and McClure took the top two spots at OUAs this weekend. Brown was dominant, well clear of the field, and it was a very strong run by McClure to hold off the pack of Gryphons. But, after these two there was a substantial gap. Granted, U of T should have a better team than this for CIs. Once Gollish returns, and if Jewett returns, they will be much stronger than the team we saw this past weekend. But we’ve been saying this all year: if Toronto can’t get someone to step up and give them a strong fifth, they won’t be able to compete with the Gryphons. This ranking assumes Jewett runs; if she doesn’t, a betting man can slot this team in at 6th or 7th. Last year’s 5th place finisher and ROY will be relied upon to get RR’s Blues onto the podium for the second straight year.
4. Calgary : Although they didn’t win Stewart Cup, we think that the Dinos have more upside than the Pandas and Bisons. They sat Fenton, their top runner, so that’s an obvious gain once she’s back in action. Also, they put four runners in front of Albert’s third. Bring Fenton back into the mix, and that’s five runners in front of Alberta’s third. Conclusion: enjoy your Stewart Cup victory, Alberta; you won’t be CanWest champions two weeks from now. From a national perspective, this team wasn’t impressive last weekend, as their 2-5 runners were more than a minute behind the leaders at Stewart Cup. That is enough to move them a notch below the Toronto and McMaster level. Unless they have that 2-5 group step-up there won’t be 7 cowgirl hats on the CIS awards stage on Saturday. Add Fenton in, and the Dinos’ results at conference look very similar to the X-Women’s; both teams are in a great position, but need to make some gains to take the bronze. Mac appears to be a step ahead of the Dinos, but they should be battling with X, Laval, and maybe Toronto for the final podium spot.
5. X: It’s very hard to know what happened at AUS. The X-women were pretty far back of Ryer of St. Mary’s, although they might not have been going 100%. If Chisholm is smart, which we think he is, he may have told his squad to run just hard enough to win the AUS title. They also sat a few athletes from their usual top 5, but this squad only has one girl capable of a low-stick finish, similar to Calgary. To be a medal team, a squad usually needs to get at least 2 athletes in the top 15, something that X seems to be lacking. If they can get a big run from their 2 or 3 athletes, this squad stands a chance at moving up. X’s 2-6 runners are all very close, which gives them a great opportunity to work together (as they have been all season). But that’s no use if their pack isn’t fast enough. At CI’s, one or two of these ladies will have to strike out from the pack and make a bid for a finish in the teens. A strong 6th gives them some room for error, so the X-Women needn’t be afraid to go after it. This team is close to the podium; a few calculated risks could get them there.
6. Laval: A very good front three gives this team a great shot at sneaking onto the podium this weekend. Cormier showed fantastic shape by running away with the QSSF title, and her teammates Fortin and Letourneau backed her up very well with what appears to be top 25 fitness. That’s a great front 3; however, the 4-5 are another minute in arrears and are going to need to get better. That minute over a 5km will be full of OUA and CanWest athletes, who will cause Laval’s score to rise to heights not deemed eligible for the podium. In the women’s race, the 30s, 40s, and 50s are packed in very tight, and Laval’s team fate is going to be determined by how far into this pack their later scorers can get. A team podium will be theirs if Pichard-Jolicoeur and Dumont can have a breakthrough performance and get down to 19 flat or so.
7. Queen’s: Bolton and Dunbar appear to be teaching the same lessons to the women that they are to the men, as this group had a fantastic pack-run at OUAs that was rewarded with a third place finish. Roney ran 18:35 as their first runner, and their sixth came in at 19:01. That’s some pretty awesome depth and should assure this team of a finish well inside the top 10. The beauty of this squad is that if they can get that pack going just 10 seconds faster they will take nearly 40 points off their team score. That kind of decrease in points would be enough for a type 5 finish on the home course. Similarly, one athlete making a big step and getting into the AC mix will also so help this squad’s chances. On the flip side, the reason this team isn’t battling with the 4 teams directly ahead of them is because they lack the low-stick. They’re strong enough to pick off some of the teams above them, if those teams make mistakes. But, unlike the 3-6 teams, they’re not ready to make a serious bid for the podium. Queen’s hasn’t seen a women’s squad this good since Lakins’ glory days of 2003 when they took silver. We’ll see if Bolton can fire his squad up enough to make their presence felt.
8. UVic: Some impressive results from the Vikes at BCs, although it’s hard to decipher just how impressive. In the Sr. race, this squad had three girls come in at 22:25 to 22:40 for 6km. Their top runner a few weeks ago, Moran, didn’t run at BCs. If you throw her in that pack, the Vikes likely have 4 who can get into the top 35. Their junior star Therrien ran 18:16 and provides the final piece to the puzzle for this squad. A few other names from this team were DNS at BCs, although knowing the Vikes’ style they are probably just resting up for the Dance. This squad may be able to repeat if not improve upon last year’s 6th place finish. We see it being between the Dinos and Vikes for the CanWest title. The result of that match-up also determining what team will close out the top 6 in the country. For now, the Vikes get a low ranking, because they don’t run against other CIS schools; this makes our job difficult, and we resent that.
9. Alberta: Props to this squad for the Stewart Cup title, although we’re sure they are aware that the one that matters is this Saturday. Acheson had a great run at Stewart Cup running 18:12. Degaust ran capably as the number two, while the Soderberg’s also had fine runs with near 19 minute efforts. This team is good, but they need to be great to be any higher than 9th this year. The teams in front of them are all very strong. There isn’t anything negative that can be said about this team; they’re pretty solid across the board. The addition of 2-time first-team AC Findlay would help them tremendously. If she’s racing this weekend, we say watch out for Alberta. If she’s not, we like them for 9th.
10. Windsor: A great run by Dayna Pidhoresky for 6th at OU’s was a step forward for the Lady Lancers. Raeleen Hunter’s 16th was another fine performance. But then, before Windsor could get their third runner in, Queen’s had six across the line. Two good runners at the front should get this team into the top ten, but a cross country team without depth can’t go far. Windsor may sneak past a few teams ranked above them if things go wrong for those teams, but the Lancers don’t have the horses to get up much higher than 10th.
Teams left off with a chance to upset:
Dalhousie: Al Yarrrrr!
‘Toba: A good front end, but lacking depth. Can they get Tessmann and Barrett to step up? There’s a lot of points there for the taking, if they do.
UWO: It was a tough day for the Mustangs at OU’s. Can they pull themselves back together for CI’s? They’ve been a top ten team all season, but will they be there when it counts?
Individuals:
Tier 1: Brown, Jewett, Carson, McClure, Cliff, Bruckschwaiger, Souter, Cormier, Ryer
Tier 2: Laurie, Lalonde, Pidhoresky, Pearo, Belanger, Fortin, Schlosser
Tier 3: Fenton, Acheson, Gregoire, Mockler, Furtado, Preibischova
Individual Champion: This should be a battle between Carson and Brown, but with Carson hurt and potentially not running, Brown takes it hands down. Cormier (Laval) could challenge her, but we’re pretty sure Brown will win her third individual title.
Darkhorse: Souter
ROY: Lalonde of Guelph was 4th at OUAs and will probably be top 10 at CIS.
No comments:
Post a Comment