1. Guelph: Was there ever any doubt? We’ve been building this team up all season long and they delivered at OUAs. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6. Are you kidding me? I guess the whole OUA owes Dave Weston a beer for stopping the clean sweep. The top three on this squad are all title-threats in Kingston, while emerging star John Parrott and vet Nigel Wray will also be battling for first-team honours. Too bad Hinton didn’t get a shot at the OUA ROY, although I guess DST is trying to be generous by letting other schools have a shot at awards. We’ll take this opportunity to give a shout out to Nixon of Lakehead for his ROY run and his coach, Kip Sigsworth, for preparing him so well. Coming back to Guelph, we feel like we’ve said everything that can be said. They are going to win, and they are probably going to beat the field at CIS. Two questions remain to be answered: Will they sweep the individual podium? And will Hinton get a shot at CIS ROY?
2. Windsor: This team was a very comfortable second at OUAs without the services of Meyer and Sinclair. With those two back in the line-up, Windsor will have the edge on X on the 14th. Weston ran tough at OUAs, as did Aguanno. Keller ran like the savvy vet he is, picking people off in the last 5km to finish in a very solid 8th. The top three for Windsor will need to match X’s top three. The advantage for the Lancers comes from the fact that they have 5 or even 6 guys who are capable of matching up with the top 3 X-men, and that means they will have plenty of breathing room at the big dance. We’d love to see this squad give Guelph at least a bit of scare but, now more than ever, it seems virtually impossible for the Gryphs to lose.
3. X: These guys put on a clinic at the AUS meet and have three runners at the front who will be battling for AC honours. Gerych is ready to bust one, McCarron is fit, and Doubrovsky is rockin’ once more. Based on the results, we think that X took it fairly easy, had a nice little pack run at the AUS meet, and has more in the tank for CIS. This team could perhaps be the 2nd team in the field with three runners in; however, they need to shore up the back end a bit more if they are going to hang on to 2nd. Addison ran well, maybe even saving something for Kingston, but Corbitt was a ways back and puts the only damper on an otherwise flawless performance at Point Pleasant. If Corbitt can get it rolling, this team has a good shot at taking down the Lancers for 2nd. But who can predict what Corbitt will do? X doesn’t need Windsor to make any mistakes, but they need all five of their scorers to have big runs on the day. Even for the best coaches, there’s an element of luck in that proposition. Are you feeling lucky, Bernie?
4. Regina: Wiebe is FIT. All signs are telling us that Wiebe is one of the men to beat at CIS. He dominated the field at Stewart Cup, beating his teammate and potential AC Wyatt Baiton by over a minute. That’s nasty. Baiton had a great run, especially for a rookie, with his 2nd place finish. Fyfe is getting better every week and gave Regina three guys in the top 5 out west. That’s a very good start, and with Dale Wig performing like a top 30 guy this team is in a great spot through 4. The regular 5-man for the Cougars was out at Stewart Cup, but apparently Ben-jamin’ will be back and ready to go for CIS. This team needs him badly as a 37 minute guy in a scoring position will push Regina way down the list. Regina is in the medal hunt, especially if they can get a great run from their fifth man.
5. UVic: This team is almost identical to last year’s squad, with a great front 3 and question marks for their 4th and 5th scorers. Pieterson is a top 7 guy after running 31:12 at BCs. Mallie is in good shape and is an athlete who usually brings his best at the big races. The improvement of Cliff Childs over the last month is helping this team and makes them another group that is sniffing at the podium. Childs brings his best when it matters and may end up being an AC. Clouthier and Irvine had good runs at BCs, but one wonders how well these young guns will fare with the pressure of a national championship on the line. The story of the day at BCs for the Vikes was Tom Fleming, who ran 32:32 and was only 30 seconds back of Childs. He needs to reproduce that in Kingston; if he does, this team can win the bronze. However, this squad is in a precarious position where one bad run will result in a big slide down the results page.
6. Queen’s: This team put on a pack-running clinic at OUAs. Hulse took Patterson and Courchene for a ride, and Captain Walmsley carried Nishiyama and Potvin as far they could go. This team got it done on the day and now enters CIS as a potential upset team. They are relatively young and inexperienced, with only 3 of the top 7 having CIS experience. They may just be naïve enough to ignore the pressure of a home CIS meet and run out of their minds. On paper, this team has no business beating Toronto - they were just 6th in the OUA last year - but they did just that. History doesn’t lie: the last time the third place OUA team wasn’t top 6 was way back in 2004. That seems like a good goal for this group. The one thing holding them back from a medal is not having an AC type of guy. Hulse has the pedigree for that type of performance, but 12th at OUAs doesn’t get you top 14 at CIS. If he can step it up like he has in the past (see 2008 CIS track) and if Patterson can follow suit, this team can start to dream about a trip to the stage.
7. Sherbrooke: Baghdad Rachem dominated at QSSF, although we wouldn’t bet on him for the individual title at CIS due to his racing schedule this fall. A half-marathon the weekend before the QSSF meet means he’ll probably be gassed come the 4th loop at the Fort. As Deng Mariel explained, when asked how he had made such improvements as an XC runner, “I stopped running half marathons during the season.” Sage advice. Rachem’s a great runner, but a man’s got to know his limitations. JPC has been getting better and better and knows what it takes to be top 10, as he’s done it before (though there have been some ups and downs in this guy’s running over the last few years). Buzingo is back and in his usual form, and his addition helps this squad’s chances. This group has the top end necessary to be on the podium and, like X and Regina, is relying on its later scorers to step up and get it done. Gahumgu and Day rounded out the top 5 at QSSF, and if they can improve their performance level, this team will be in the top 5. However, an off day will result in this team adding enough points on that they will be eaten up by the group of teams right behind them.
8. Toronto: Del Monte ran well at OUAs, getting after it with the lead pack, a strategy that will probably benefit him on the Fort Henry course where letting a gap go early can ruin one’s race. It’s a course where getting out where you want to finish is absolutely necessary. When the winds start howling and the course gets chewed up, the even-pace strategy almost never works. Douglas ran well, although being a fifth year guy he’ll probably run even better at CIS when the heat is on. Pavelic and Nicholl ran admirably in the absence of usual 3-4 men, Lambert and Pettes. This team is still a question mark, as it has been all season. Pettes and Lambert have the ability to be much higher than they were at OUAs, and so does Murray-Lawson. However, unless 2 of these 3 can step up, the Varsity Blues will be light years away from a medal, and battling just to stay in the top 10. Consider this your wake-up call, Blues.
9. Calgary: Cloutier has given Calgary a boost in the last few weeks, proving to be a strong front-man with AC potential. Pootz and Nicol are back in business after great runs at Stewart Cup and now complete a strong top 3 for the Dinos. The problem with this team is that they had a minute gap back to Russell and Dorosz in the 4 and 5 spots. That’s okay if the third man is a top 10 guy, but Nichol doesn’t appear to be at that level. He’s more like a 30th place guy, which means Calgary is probably going to be scoring two guys in the 50s. That pushes them out of the medal picture and into the mid-level top 10 picture. As we’ve said before, this team has shown in the past that they run well at the show, and if they can do that again this year, they will be looking at as high as a 6th place finish. After UVic, there is a cluster of teams that are going to be very close on Saturday.
10. Alberta: Finally, we see where this team stands. They had a good run at Stewart Cup, although probably not what they were hoping. The West is strong this year, and this team comes into CIS as the number 4 ranked CanWest team. Weikum, Ostapowich, and Leboeuf need to pack run and get into the top 20 if this squad wants to be top 5. Carver stepped up at Stewart cup and gave Da Bears another guy capable of a good placing, but the fifth man was way too far back. Some of their usual suspects ran uncharacteristically slow at Stewart Cup, so if everything is okay health-wise, this team has the potential to pull a few upsets. The 6-11 teams are incredibly tight; a team like UWO, who we have 11th right now, can actually move up to 6th or 7th if they get some great runs. Conversely, if a group like Alberta has an off day, they can very easily drop right out of the top ten.
Teams left off with a chance to upset:
Mac: On the surface, their OUA performance looked bad; however, Yorke had a bad day. With him up to his usual form, this team actually could’ve been 3rd in the conference. A big day from a couple of athletes and Mac could move well into the top 10.
UWO: Not a great day at OUAs, although O’Neil appears due for another AC run. This squad was just off of Toronto and Queen’s, although their performances are trending down. If this squad can do the unthinkable and actually run better at CIS than the Western International, they too, can move into the top 10. Guelph should watch out for brash, young Brent Smith during the opening kilometer.
Concordia: This squad has been getting better each year and is led by CIS ROY hopeful Colle. He was a DNS at QSSF, but his early season form indicates he’s got the ability to be an AC. Noel-Hodge looks like a top 25 guy and could help lead this squad to a top 10.
Individuals:
Tier 1: Christie, Pieterson, Wiebe, Baghdad, Brunsting, Boorsma, Brett
Tier 2: Weston, Gerych, Doubravsky, Parrott, Wray, Poulin-Cadavius
Tier 3: McCarron, Mallie, O’Neil, Baiton, Cloutier, Childs, Marin, Snider, Del Monte, Keller, Colle
Individual Champion: This is a very hard pick, especially with so many Guelph guys up at the top which gives them an advantage, but we are calling a three-way battle between Wiebe, Brunsting, and Boorsma. Boorsma is probably the most talented of the bunch, so we give him a nod for the win.
Darkhorse: Gerych
ROY: Colle, Baiton, and Nixon are the top candidates. Baiton will take it. Without having ever seen him run, we’re guessing that he’s a mudder, something that will likely come in handy at the Fort.
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